At least 24.67 HDB average needed for wild card

June 11, 2007 at 11:34 pm by ojrifkin · More posts about:Nathan's Hot Dog Contest

(Thanks William Myers) Here are the leading averages for eaters who have entered two or more Nathan’s qualifiers. Tim Brown is the first wildcard contender to finish his quota of three qualifiers.

33 Rich LeFevre (33, 33) (at least 8 needed to beat Tim Brown)
24.67 Tim Brown (24, 25, 25)
23 Brian Subich (27, 19) (at least 28 needed to beat Tim Brown)
22 Marco “Mongo” Marquez (21, 23) (at least 30 needed to beat Tim Brown)
21.5 Russ Keeler (23, 20) (at least 31 needed to beat Tim Brown)

A listing of all non-winning 2007 results above 15 HDB follows after the jump

2007 May 3 2nd 33 Rich “The Locust” LeFevre Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Las Vegas, NV
2007 May 26 2nd 33 “Humble” Bob Shoudt Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Philadelphia, PA
2007 Jun 2 2nd 33 Rich “The Locust” LeFevre Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Tempe, AZ
2007 Jun 9 2nd 28 Juliet Lee Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Charlotte, NC
2007 May 26 3rd 27 “Big” Brian Subich Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Philadelphia, PA
2007 Jun 3 2nd 26.5 Pat “from Moonachie” Philbin Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY
2007 Jun 3 3rd 25.5 Allen “Shredder” Goldstein Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY
2007 Jun 2 3rd 25 Tim Brown Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Tempe, AZ
2007 Jun 9 3rd 25 Tim Brown Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Charlotte, NC
2007 May 19 2nd 24 Tim Brown Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier East Hartford, CT
2007 May 26 4th 23.5 Micah “Wing Kong” Collins Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Philadelphia, PA
2007 Jun 9 4th 23.5 Pat Bruss Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Charlotte, NC
2007 May 19 3rd 23 Russ “The Black Hole” Keeler Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier East Hartford, CT
2007 May 3 3rd 23 Marco “Mongo” Marquez Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Las Vegas, NV
2007 Jun 2 4th 21 Marco “Mongo” Marquez Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Tempe, AZ
2007 Jun 2 4th 21 Justin Mih Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Tempe, AZ
2007 Jun 3 4th 20 Russ “The Black Hole” Keeler Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY
2007 May 19 4th 19.75 Peter “Pretty Boy” Davekos Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier East Hartford, CT
2007 Jun 3 5th 19 “Big” Brian Subich Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY
2007 May 26 5th 17.25 Eric “Steakbellie” Livingston Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Philadelphia, PA
2007 Jun 3 6th 17 Darryl Newman Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY
2007 May 26 6th 16.5 William “Wild Bill” Myers Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Philadelphia, PA
2007 Jun 2 6th 16 Russell “Mad Stork” Witzke Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Tempe, AZ
2007 Jun 3 7th 15 Peter “Pretty Boy” Davekos Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest qualifier Queens, NY

Comments (26)

26 Comments »

  1. SuperPaul KeepDreamin Boneheaded Bigmouth Buried SetThe Barlow said

    June 11, 2007 @ 11:49 pm

    So, I only need to eat 39 1/2 hot dogs on June 23rd at the Zoo…maybe everyone else should forfeit…it’s as good as mine!!

  2. carey poehlmann said

    June 12, 2007 @ 6:58 am

    ok, I was off a bit with my predictions. I even thought about how many great eaters are rising up, and how the amount of qualifiers remained the same. That actually hurt me more than helped. Brown would have qualified last year with numbers like that. Is Bob going to be in any other qualifiers? Did he have a “safety qualifier” in case he didn’t get in at Philly?

  3. Tim Brown said

    June 12, 2007 @ 11:52 am

    Do you have to be in three for the wild card. I thought it was the average of your best two…?

  4. I love Kevin Ross said

    June 12, 2007 @ 12:26 pm

    three

  5. carey poehlmann said

    June 12, 2007 @ 12:59 pm

    Technically, no you don’t have to be in three, you just get 0 for each under three that you don’t compete. That won’t be an issue here. Rich right now has an average of 22, which is under Tim’s average.
    Don’t get thrown off by the side notes. Rich isn’t going to get the wild card if he eats 8 HDB’s next qualifier, that is just what he needs to beat Tim. He also might qualify on his third attempt. Other’s may also get higher averages. Bob could still put in two more, Brian is showing dramatic improvement each qualifier, and might do over 28 also on his last one.

  6. Rhonda Evans said

    June 12, 2007 @ 1:35 pm

    They shouldn’t call it an “average.” The fact is it is the TOTAL # of HDBs eaten and the limit is three contests. So if the nonwinners eat in three qualifiers, then it is indeed the average. But totals are easier to keep up with and the total consumed is the bottom line # you need to consider.

  7. Rhonda Evans said

    June 12, 2007 @ 1:43 pm

    Carey I don’t know how other feel, and can only speak for myself, but your presence here is much appreciated, because you show that there can be camaraderie among both IFOCE and idependent eaters, and that it is easy enough to treat one another with dignity and respect.

    All this is supposed to be fun anyway. You help make it so. I just wanted you to know that.

  8. carey poehlmann said

    June 12, 2007 @ 2:26 pm

    Thanks Rhonda. And that is a great point, just call it a total instead of an average. Tim’s total is 74. Rich’s total is 66, he needs 8 more to take the lead. If there is any sense in the Shea’s, they will impliment this idea in the future (if in fact they do read these strings)

  9. I love Kevin Ross said

    June 12, 2007 @ 2:31 pm

    no rhonda, a mathematical average is

    the quotient obtained by dividing the sum total of a set of figures by the number of figures

    so for this wildcard it is TOTAL/3

    the ifoce is actually quite clear on how the wildcard winner is determined

  10. Rhonda Evans said

    June 12, 2007 @ 3:33 pm

    Nice reductionistic conveyance on how to come up with a mathematical average. You are making it too hard.

    For the record, there has never, ever been a wild card champion who qualified by eating anything short of the most hot dogs as a total of all three qualifiers.

  11. Rhonda Evans said

    June 12, 2007 @ 4:00 pm

    Tim (Brown) don’t worry because take it from me, you WILL get the wild card. No other nonwinners will best your total of 74.

    Don’t worry about Rich LeFevre or Bob Shoudt, because they will be outright winners. So will Juliet, Crazy Legs, and Seaver Miller.

  12. I love Kevin Ross said

    June 12, 2007 @ 4:40 pm

    rich wins sf. legs wins mall of america. where do the others win?

  13. carey poehlmann said

    June 12, 2007 @ 5:30 pm

    I Love Kevin Ross, You totally misunderstood what Rhonda was saying. Rhonda is actually right in saying that it is not (necessarily) the average. They can use two events in determining the average used in deciding your rankings for the wildcard. This gives you a lower score, but someday we may see a situation where a two event eater will get the wildcard. (next year Bob Shoudt will only do two events, getting 44 and 46 respectively, but not qualify because he went up against Chip in one of them and Rich in another, both qualifying themselves. Bob’s numbers will be enough to beat out Juliet’s three qualifier average of 29 HDB’s) So, why not make it easier and just call it your “total qualifier numbers” instead of “your average of three events with a zero as one of the events if you only do two events total”
    Thanks for the math lesson, by the way.

  14. frankie said

    June 12, 2007 @ 10:37 pm

    Average most often refers to the arithmetic mean, but is actually ambiguous
    and may be used to also refer to the mode, median, or midrange.

    You should always clarify which average is being used, preferrably by using a more specific term. Averages give us information about a typical element of a data set. They are measures of central tendency.

    Mean most often refers to the arithmetic mean, but is also ambiguous.
    Unless specified otherwise, we will assume arithmetic mean whenever the term mean is used.

    The Arithmetic Mean is obtained by summing all elements of the data set
    and dividing by the number of elements.

    A host of other means and their method of computation will be discussed in lesson 4.

    Symbolically, the arithmetic mean is expressed as where (pronounced “x-bar”) is the arithmetic mean for a sample and is the capital Greek letter sigma and indicates summation. xi refers to each element of the data set as i ranges from 1 to n. n is the number of elements in the data set. The equation is essentially the same for finding a population mean; however, the symbol for the population mean is the small Greek letter µ (mu). As we will also see in lesson 5, Roman letters usually represent sample statistics, whereas Greek letters usually represent population parameters.

    Sample Size is the number of elements in a sample. It is referred to by the symbol n.

    Be sure to use a lower case n for sample size. An upper case N refers to Population Size, unless being used in the context of a normally distributed population.

    Mode is the data element which occurs most frequently.

    A useful mnemonic is to alliterate the words mode and most. Alliterations start with the same sound like: “seven slippery slimy snakes…”.

    Some data sets contain no repeated elements. In this case, there is no mode (or the mode is the empty set). It is also possible for two or more elements to be repeated with the same frequency. In these cases, there are two or more modes and the data set is said to be bimodal or multimodal. In the rare instance of a uniform or nearly uniform distribution, one where each element is repeated the same or nearly the same number of times, one could term it multimodal, but some authors invoke subjectivity by specifying multimodality only when separate, distinct, and fairly high peaks (ignoring fluctuations due to randomness) occur.

    The Median is the middle element when the data set is arranged in order of magnitude.

    A useful mnemonic is to remember that the median is the grassy strip (in the rural area of the midwest where I come from) that divides opposing lanes in a highway. It is in the middle.

    If there are an odd number of data elements, the median is a member of the data set. If there are an even number of data elements, the median is computed as the arithmetic mean of the middle two.

    The median has other names which will be studied in lesson 7. The symbol (pronounced “x-tilde”) is sometimes used for the median, but will not be used here.

    The Midrange is the arithmetic mean of the highest and lowest data elements.

    Midrange is a type of average. Range is a measure of dispersion and will be studied in lesson 5. A common mistake is to confuse the two.

    Symbolically, midrange is computed as (xmax+xmin)/2

    The Best Average
    The ambiguity of the term average can lend to deception. Statisticians may often be cast as liars as a result. Note how advertisers may distort statistics to pursue their goals.
    Some basic facts regarding averages are as follows.

    Mean, median, and midrange always exist and are unique.
    Mode may not be unique or may not even exist.
    Mean and median are very common and familiar.
    Mode is used less frequently; midrange is rarely used.
    Only the mean is “reliable” in that it utilizes every data element.
    The midrange, and also somewhat the mean, can be distorted by extreme data elements (see lesson 8).
    The mode is the only appropriate average for nominal data.
    Round-off Rules
    The mode, if it exists, and possibly the median are elements of the data set. As such, they should be specified no more accurately than the original data set elements.
    The midrange and possibly the median are the arithmetic mean of two data set elements. One additional significant digit may be necessary to accurately convey this information.

    The number of significant digits for the mean should conform to one of the following rules.

    The significant digits should be no more than the number of significant digits in the sum of the data elements. Since the sample size (n) is an exact value, it has no affect on the number of significant digits obtained from the division. Those rules were outline in Numbers lesson 9. This is sometimes simplify as a rule of thumb by stating that the mean should be given to one more decimal place than the original data. However, this assumes the data set is small (n

  15. frankie said

    June 12, 2007 @ 10:40 pm

    My above post was truncated… (continued)
    However, this assumes the data set is small (n

  16. frankie said

    June 12, 2007 @ 10:41 pm

    However, this assumes the data set is small (n less than 100) and that the data was recorded to a consistant precision. On a historic note, the term rule of thumb apparently does not come from any old English law to limit the size of stick which a husband could use to beat his wife as previously stated. However, abusive relationships still remain an often hidden societal problem.
    The number of significant digits should be consistant with the precision obtained for the standard deviation. This concept is expanded upon in lesson 5 after measures of dispersion are discussed.
    It is not uncommon in science for results to be left in and interim calculations sometimes rounded to three significant digits, which is about all you could get out of a slide rule. Hence, this was commonly termed slide rule accuracy. In pre-calculator days, this also made hand calculations easier.
    The important thing to remember is not to write down twelve decimal places without good reason, even though your calculator will often display such.
    Presenting more than five significant digits is probably a joke and points will be deducted!

    In 1894 the physicist Michelson apparently quoting Kelvin said: “it seems probable that most of the grand underlying principles have now been firmly established and that further advances are to be sought chiefly in the rigorous application of these principles to all the phenomena which come under our notice….future truths of physical science are to be looked for in the sixth place of decimals.” Relativity and quantum mechanics soon revolutionalized physics and we soon were looking at details in the ninth place! My dissertation, reported results of the cesium D1 transition centroid frequency as: 335 116 048 748.2(2.4) kHz.

    Examples
    The homework for statistics lesson 2 near the end had the question:
    17. What is the average of: 1, 1, 2, 4, 7?

    As we have seen in this lecture, this is a rather ambiguous question and the answers 1 (mode), 2 (median), 3.0 (mean), and 4.0 (midrange) are all possible and correct!

    ——————————————————————————–

    Example: A sample of size 5 (n=5) is taken of student quiz scores with the following results: 1, 7, 8, 9, 10.

    Answer: The mean is (1+7+8+9+10)/5 = 35/5 = 7.0 (note one more decimal place is given).

    All scores occur only once, hence there is no mode. The median score is 8 (not 8.0). The midrange is (10+1)/2 = 5.5 (note the extra decimal place is required).

    An extreme score (1) distorts the mean so perhaps the median is a better measure of central tendency. For a larger data set, this could be further defined in terms of skewness (median and generally mean to the left of (negatively skewed), right of (positively skewed), or same as (zero skewness) the mode) and symmetry of the data set. It is more common to be positively skewed, since exceptionally large values are easier to obtain due to lower limits. A case in point would be annual earnings. Our left tail is cut off by zero, whereas our right tail is extremely skewed by the likes of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.

  17. Steakbellie said (Registered August 11, 2006)

    June 12, 2007 @ 11:54 pm

    Frankie,
    Everyone knows that the data kept on George Shea’s ENIAC goes way out four or five decimal places and that OJ merely simplifies the number for general consumption. I mean SQL can only handle sooo much. Significant figures out two decimals places is ok and will satisfy number freaks like Mega Much.

    I lost one of my fingers on an overly used and sharpened slide rule, and now am in the process of constructing the worlds first Solar Abacus. I intend to make it big enough to be seen from the Space Station.

  18. Steakbellie said (Registered August 11, 2006)

    June 12, 2007 @ 11:58 pm

    more importantly,
    this post shows that I will have to break the world record twice to be considered for the Wild Card. Not sure if I would do that to Joey.

  19. carey poehlmann said

    June 13, 2007 @ 6:51 am

    Steakbellie, I can’t believe you replied to Frankie, who didn’t say anything at all about CE, and his only talent in life is cut and paste.

  20. Rhonda Evans said

    June 13, 2007 @ 1:18 pm

    ILKR The remaining contests should go something like this, as far as who wins them:

    – Mall of America: Crazy Legs or Seaver Miller.
    – Norfolk: Juliet Lee HANDS DOWN
    – Molly Pitcher: Bob Shoudt or Allen Goldstein or Crazy Legs (if Bob does not attend)
    – Atlanta Zoo: Seaver Miller or Allen Goldstein or Crazy Legs , depending on who attends
    – San Francisco: Rich LeFevre HANDS DOWN
    – Civil Service Qualifier: Allen Goldstein HANDS DOWN
    – QVC Qualifier: Bob Shoudt or Brian Subich if Bob wins elsewhere

  21. RussK said (Registered February 3, 2007)

    June 13, 2007 @ 6:21 pm

    Rhonda,

    You are forgetting Pat Philbin. I believe he will be at the Molly Pitcher and QVC

  22. Anonymous said

    June 13, 2007 @ 7:26 pm

    Maybe she didnt forget.

    (Luther)

  23. Pat From Moonachie said (Registered December 10, 2005)

    June 13, 2007 @ 8:57 pm

    Ouch!

  24. Rhonda Evans said

    June 14, 2007 @ 6:58 am

    Russ K (and Pat and Luther) I absolutely did forget about Pat from Moonachie. Whichever of those venues (MP or QVC) that Bob doesn’t show up at Pat will bring home the bacon.

  25. SuperPaul KeepDreamin Boneheaded Bigmouth Buried SetThe Barlow said

    June 14, 2007 @ 7:53 am

    Don’t count me out….last night I did a speed drill, and I’m a shoo-in for the Atlanta neat-eating contest…..

  26. carey poehlmann said

    June 14, 2007 @ 9:45 am

    next survey should be everyone voting on a single nickname for Paul “more nicknames than he can eat in one sitting” Barlow

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